Good morning everyone,

Good morning, and welcome to The Situation Room. Today we’ll be covering an alleged meeting between Tren de Aragua's leadership in Colombia, Bashar al-Assad's flight from Syria to Russia, and a major military operation against a faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.

Top Tren de Aragua Leadership Allegedly Meets in Colombia

By: Trent Barr, Latin America Desk Chief

A meeting in Colombia between Tren de Aragua’s top leader, Hector Rustherford “Nino Guerrero” Guerrero Flores, and the leader of the gang’s Colombian branch, Giovanny San Vicente Serrano, reportedly took place in Bogotá, Colombia. The director of the Gaula of the Police, Colonel Elver Alonso Sanabria, told Semana.

Heightened Operations

Guerrero allegedly met with his counterpart in Colombia in order to issue further orders on how the criminal organization is to pursue criminal operations. This information revealed by Semana follows the arrest of Carlos “Bobby” Gómez in Colombia, an alleged member of the same criminal outfit who is believed to be the leader of the group’s branch in Chile.

The location of both Guerrero and Serrano is currently unknown at this time.

Bobby’s arrest was announced by Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Saturday in a post on X. In the post, Petro stated the arrest took place in Los Patios, Norte de Santander, and was the result of collaboration between “Chilean and Colombian intelligence.” Colonel Sanabria told Semana further that Bobby managed over 120 individuals active within the gang, according to Chilean authorities, and held Venezuelan, Chilean, and Colombian nationalities, which allowed the alleged ringleader to evade capture by moving between the three countries.

The operation that saw Bobby’s arrest is part of an increasing effort to curb the influence and presence of Tren de Aragua in Colombia. On November 16, 2024, a joint operation between Colombian and Venezuelan authorities named “Operation Border” resulted in the arrest of a major ringleader for the gang identified as Jeison Alexander Lorca Salazar, also known by his alias “Jeison Comino.” Lorca Salazar was arrested in a “luxurious property” located in Los Santos, Santander, and has been identified as the second highest-ranking member of the criminal organization’s presence in Colombia.

“Cae is the second most important head of the Aragua train in Colombian territory, and with the work of the Colombian police supported by the Venezuelan," President Gustavo Petro said in a post on X following Lorca Salazar’s arrest.

The arrest of Bobby only weeks after the arrest of Lorca Salazar has led some to speculate the latter could have possibly revealed Bobby’s location to Colombian authorities in exchange for a lessened sentence.

The arrest of key figures within Tren de Aragua’s commanding structure in Colombia is part of an increasing trend of operations against the international criminal group as fears of increased irregular migration of Venezuelans have increased following Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s alleged victory in this year’s presidential election. Tren de Aragua plays a critical role in the smuggling of Venezuelans to new countries, with the criminal group having established itself on the Colombia-Venezuela border in 2018 to fully take advantage of those seeking a better life in a new country and the smuggling of narcotics into and out of Venezuela.

This move has put Tren de Aragua in conflict with other armed groups in the region, including the National Liberation Army (ELN) and Clan del Golfo, also known as the Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC). These groups have been active in the region for decades, with both groups tracing their lineage back to the Colombian Conflict, an ongoing, multifaceted conflict between right-wing paramilitaries, communist guerrillas, and Colombian security forces that has raged on for over 60 years, making it Latin America’s longest ongoing conflict.

Russia Grants Asylum to Bashar al-Assad After Rebel Offensive

By: Theo Blackwell, Analyst

Russia has confirmed that it has provided asylum to Bashar al-Assad, the former president of Syria, following his ousting in a swift and coordinated rebel offensive. Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, told NBC News in an interview on Tuesday that Assad was transported to Russia under tight security measures.

A Historical Alliance

The Kremlin announced on Monday that President Vladimir Putin personally authorized the decision to grant asylum to Assad. The development marks a significant setback for both Russia and Iran, which had long backed Assad during Syria’s 13-year civil war. Both nations had invested considerable resources in bolstering his regime, often clashing with Western governments that demanded Assad step down.

“This action demonstrates Russia’s ability to act decisively in extraordinary situations,” Ryabkov stated, though he declined to provide further details on Assad’s evacuation or the logistics involved.

When asked about the possibility of handing Assad over for trial, Ryabkov firmly rejected the idea, citing Russia’s non-membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Russia’s ties to Syria date back to the Cold War era. Moscow was one of the first nations to recognize Syria’s independence in 1944, as the country sought to free itself from French colonial rule. Over subsequent decades, Syria became a key Soviet ally in the Middle East, a relationship that endured even after the collapse of the USSR.

For Russia, Assad's regime was a linchpin of its strategy in the region, offering access to military bases and a foothold in the geopolitically critical Middle East. His fall represents a disruption to Moscow's long-term plans in Syria, though the Kremlin’s decision to grant him asylum underscores its commitment to shielding him from potential international prosecution.

In the wake of Assad's ousting, Syria's interim leader announced on Tuesday that he has assumed control as caretaker prime minister. This move has the backing of the coalition of rebel groups that orchestrated the offensive against Assad. The new leadership faces the daunting challenge of stabilizing a country fractured by over a decade of civil war.

The rebels' ability to topple Assad signals a shift in the balance of power in Syria, where the conflict had largely stagnated in recent years. With Assad out of the picture, regional and international actors may reorganize their strategies as they navigate a new phase of the Syrian conflict.

During the NBC interview, Ryabkov also addressed the possibility of future prisoner exchanges with the United States. Citing the August swap involving Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan, he described the potential for another exchange as “a healthy step forward,” particularly with the onset of a new U.S. administration. However, he declined to provide specifics, emphasizing that no agreements had been finalized.

Nineteen Members of FARC Dissidents Arrested by Colombian Authorities

By: Trent Barr, Latin America Desk Chief

Nineteen members of a dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) known as Frente 19 were captured, while five minors who were forcibly recruited by the group were rescued during a military operation conducted by the Colombian armed forces on Monday, according to Colombia’s Ministry of Defense.

Operation Dakota

The operation, dubbed “Operation Dakota,” took place in Cesar, located in northern Colombia, a region known for the presence of other armed groups, including another faction of the FARC known as the Second Marquetalia and the right-wing narco-terrorist organization known as the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), also known as Clan del Golfo.

According to authorities, Frente 19 sought to expand their operations into Cesar from Catatumbo, a subregion in Norte de Santander, with a focus on areas with a close proximity to the Colombia-Venezuela border. According to General Omar Sepúlveda, the group hoped to establish corridors in order to attack armed groups active in the area, such as the AGC, establish key smuggling routes for narcotics, and establish control over civilians in the area.

The arrest of the 19 members of Frente 19 follows another operation against the armed group on December 8, 2024, in which nine members of the armed group were captured by security forces while two minors who were forcibly recruited were rescued and released in La Paz, Cesar. During the operation that resulted in the arrests, 12 rifles, one pistol, a grenade launcher, 3,000 7.62 caliber rounds, 789 5.56 caliber rounds, six 40mm grenades, 100 kilos of explosives, and other military material were seized by security forces.

Following the conclusion of this operation, which was conducted within the framework of the Ayacucho Plan, Brigadier General César Augusto Martínez Páez, who is the commanding officer of the Tenth Brigade, which dealt the blow to Frente 19, resulted in the “total dismantling” of the group, according to El Heraldo, a Colombian news outlet based in Barranquilla, Atlántico.

The choice to settle near the Venezuelan border is part of a historical relationship between leftist armed groups active in Colombia and Venezuela. Groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) and the FARC enjoyed a number of boons from Venezuela, with the state allegedly allowing armed groups to take shelter across the border in order to evade capture while also providing economic and logistic support. This relationship has led to Venezuela becoming a key player in peace talks between the Colombian government and armed groups such as the FARC and ELN, acting as a guarantor during the FARC’s negotiations with the Colombian government in 2016 and hosting Colombia and the ELN’s peace delegations.

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