The Situation Room - February 26th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Moroccan Authorities Foil ISIS Terror Plot

• Former Brazillian President Bolsonaro Charged With Coup Attempt

• Iraqi Intel Chief Warns of ISIS

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Moroccan Authorities Foil ISIS Terror Plot

_{By: Maxwell Ingalls, Geopolitical Analyst and Intern for Atlas}

On Wednesday February 19^th, Moroccan authorities announced that they had dismantled an Islamic State terror cell operating throughout several major Moroccan metropolitan areas that were in the stage of planning and preparing for a major terrorist operation reminiscent to the 2003 Casablanca bombings, except on a much larger scale. The Casablanca bombing of 2003 was carried out by suicide bombers of the Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group (MICG), a group which was affiliated with Al-Qaeda and formed in the late 1990s by former Mujahideen fighters from the Soviet-Afghan War. In the bombings, 33 civilians were killed with over 100 injured with the targets being a hotel, Jewish center, restaurant, and the Belgian consulate. The 2003 Casablanca bombings are the deadliest terror attack in Morocco’s history. In addition, members of the MICG were responsible for the 2004 Madrid train bombings. The attacks left 191 dead and over 1,800 injured in what is Spain’s deadliest terror attack.

Since the 2003 Casablanca bombings Morocco increased security measures and its counter-terror forces. A key piece of legislation was passed just 10 days after the bombings titled The Law on Combating Terrorism, or the 03-03 law. The legislation has three main components with the first being harsher sentences for “acts” that are terrorist offenses, including capital execution. However, the law fails to define terrorism nor stipulates which specific acts are considered terrorism. The second part of the law gives the Rabat court of appeals the jurisdiction over every terrorism related case, no matter which part of Morocco the attack takes place in. It also increased the amount of time a suspect could be held by the police to 12 days and only allow the defendant to see a lawyer after the 6^th day in custody. The third and final component of the law relates to the financing of terrorism, allowing the authorities to freeze bank accounts of those suspected of either being involved in terrorist offenses or those funding terrorist groups.

Using this legislation Moroccan authorities launched a widespread operation targeting Islamists in the Casablanca area arresting over 2,000 people in just a year. 900 were convicted of terrorism related crimes during the sweep with 17 receiving death sentences. Although deemed successful in enhancing Moroccan national security, the law also met widespread criticism with evidence that many of the suspects were tortured, had their civil rights violated through extended detention, and were placed in the custody of the General Directorate of Territorial Surveillance (DGST) which did not have the authority to arrest and hold suspects.

The Raids and Investigation

The raids on February 19^th were conducted by the DGST and its law enforcement branch, the Central Bureau of Judicial Investigations (BCIJ). The raids were carried out simultaneously in several cities including Casablanca, Fez, Taounate, Laayoune, Tangier, Azemmour, Guercif, Oulad Tayma, and Tamsna (a suburb of Rabat). Moroccan authorities reported that they used ladder teams, snipers, and stun grenades in the raids, which led to the arrests of 12 men from the ages of 18-40. In addition, BCJI teams also evacuated residents from several apartment blocks where the raids were taking place due to the possible presence of explosives. In the raid on Tamsna, two men were arrested who were in the process of creating an improvised explosive device (IED) consisting of four gas cylinders filled with chemicals and remote detonators. Another device was found in the home that was created a pressure cooker, nails, and explosives. US currency, knives, and chemical precursors used to manufacture explosives were also recovered from the other raids. Moroccan police also discovered a cache of weapons in Errachidia that contained two AK pattern rifles, two shotguns, and over a dozen handguns in varying calibers that is believed to have belonged to the cell. It is believed that the cell was planning to target Moroccan security personnel as well as several key economic and security areas. This round of arrests follows a previous raid in late January when the DGST and BCIJ arrested four suspects who had pledged allegiance to ISIS and had planned to attack security personnel, a supermarket, and several other public spaces. In this cell, three of the men were brothers.

The Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP)

What is most worrisome to Moroccan and international officials is the relationship between the cell and the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP), formerly the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). In intelligence gathered by the DGST, Moroccan authorities believe that the 12-man cell were in direct contact with a key ISIS commander that heads an “external operations” unit. This unit’s sole purpose is to export attacks across the Sahel region. Not only did the commander provide the cell with logistical and financial support, but also directly oversaw the cells operations through couriers. This differs from other cells, who may pledge allegiance to ISIS but have no direct contact with the group. This can be seen by how hierarchical and organized the cell in Morocco was, with a separate unit established with the sole purpose of handling the finances of the cell.

The Islamic State in the Sahel Province has expanded in recent years, particularly after the departure of French troops from several Sahel states including Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso which is where ISSP operates from. This has led to a general security breakdown in the region with wide expanses of open terrain being left undefended allowing ISSP to have a relatively safe area of operation. ISSP was founded in 2015 after several jihadist factions broke away from Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb. In 2017, a new Al-Qaeda affiliate was also launched in the Sahel region known as Jama‘at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The ISSP and JNIM frequently clash over territorial and ideological control of the Jihadist movement in the Sahel. Due to the withdrawal of French troops from West Africa, ISSP and JNIM are now emboldened, rejuvenated, and stronger. This likely means that ISSP will continue to attempt to export terror attacks not just in the Sahel but across Africa.

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