Good morning everyone,

I’m Trent Barr, and welcome to The Situation Room! 

There’s a lot to go over this week! A paramilitary organization within Sudan is committing genocide in Sudan, according the the US State Department. National defense is getting a makeover in Germany. Scores of Mexican military personnel arrive in Tabasco, Mexico amid a row of violent incidents.

Let’s get to it!

• US State Department Declares Genocide in Sudan

• Germany Aims to Redefine its National Defense

• It’s Getting Hotter in Tabasco Mexico

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RSF Accused of Genocide by US State Dept…Again

_{By: Ian Hines, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

For the second time in twenty years, the United States Department of State has declared that a genocide is ongoing in the Republic of the Sudan. The statement released by Secretary of State Antony Blinken levied the accusations against the Rapid Support Forces and its allies led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. This comes as the brutal civil war in Sudan nears its two year anniversary.

The accusations included deliberate attacks on civilians, especially men and boys, on an ethnic basis in the Darfur region. Blinken alleged the RSF had engaged in regular sexual violence against women and girls, targeted unarmed civilians and prevented people from accessing much needed food supplies. Blinken stated:

“Based on this information, I have now concluded that members of the RSF and allied militias have committed genocide in Sudan”

The RSF responded to these allegations on Telegram, claiming that the US failed to clarify any locations or groups which the genocide took place against. They also accused the United States of overlooking the Sudanese Army’s aerial attacks on civilian areas.

In the statement released, Blinken did not explicitly accuse the SAF of any crimes, but refused to endorse their governance in Sudan. He stated that both factions are responsible for the ongoing civil war in the country, and lack legitimacy to rule the nation when the guns fall silent.

Sudan Nears Two Years of War

The current conflict in Sudan began in April of 2023, when the RSF launched attacks against government forces in several Sudanese cities simultaneously. Sudan had been under the rule of dictator Omar al-Bashir for three decades, before a coup in 2019 removed him from power and began a transition to civilian governance. A second coup took place in 2021, when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the RSF under Hemedti worked together to remove the transitional council from power.

It was after this that a divide began to form between the two generals. Hemedti accused al-Burhan of appointing Islamist officials from the old al-Bashir regime, wanting the Khartoum political elite to maintain control over Sudan. Hemedti later publicly expressed that he regretted taking part in the 2021 coup, representing a firm break from his alliance with al-Burhan.

In 2023, tensions between the two factions finally boiled over. Amidst attempts to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese military, the paramilitary group launched an offensive on Khartoum and other cities across the nation in an attempt to seize control of the nation. Heavy urban fighting in Khartoum followed, a battle which has persisted for nearly two years. As of early 2025, civil war still rages across Sudan, with the RSF’s primary stronghold being in the Darfur region while the SAF rules from Port Sudan on the coast.

Previous Genocide in Sudan

The RSF originates from the Janjaweed militias, formed in the late 1980s. As local tribes began to form ethnic insurgencies against the al-Bashir regime, Khartoum began arming and supporting Janjaweed to put them down. In 2007, the UN accused Janjaweed of genocide during their campaigns against ethnic militias, and in 2008 the ICC filed a case against Omar al-Bashir for genocide. It is believed between 200,000-300,000 people were killed during the genocide, one of the worst of the 21st century.

During the current conflict, the RSF has been accused of restarting these atrocities, targeting non-Arab tribes in the Darfur region. The UN found in January of 2024 that 15,000 Masalit people had been killed in the city of El-Geneina since the start of hostilities, a normal that has likely risen without another year’s time.

The genocide designation came with a fresh round of sanctions against Hemedti and his allies, mainly effecting companies in the United Arab Emiritates, the main backer of the RSF in the current war. With the RSF hoping to rule Sudan after the current conflict, this could have an impact on the group’s push for legitimacy.

Germany Aims To Build National Defense Unit Amidst Tensions in Europe

_{By: Trent Barr, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The Bundeswehr announced plans to establish a new unit focused solely on national defense as part of continued efforts to reform the long underfunded and dysfunctional military amid increasing tensions in Europe following the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Military Investments

The announced plan seeks to increase the total number of Bundeswehr divisions from three to four without increasing the total number of enlisted personnel, which currently stands at around 180,000. This move to largely reorganize existing divisions is largely a pragmatic choice as the Bundeswehr has struggled to increase the number of enlisted personnel amid rising tensions alongside concerns regarding increasing the Bundeswehr’s budget from German citizens and opposition parties such as Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW).

The decision to reorganize personnel in the Bundeswehr is part of a larger strategy by the German government and the Bundeswehr to rebuild Germany’s crumbling military, which itself is the product of funding cuts following the dissolution of the USSR and the Russian Federation’s transition to democracy. This plan was announced by Bundeskanzeler Olaf Scholz, who stated in his “Zeitenwende speech” or “turning point” that Germany would seek to raise its military spending from 1.5% to NATO’s target of 2% of the nation’s GDP. These rearmament efforts increased earlier in 2024, with the German government announcing plans to purchase an additional 20 Eurofighter aircraft from Airbus, eight additional Lockheed Martin F-35s, and an additional two hundred thousand 155mm artillery shells from domestic producer Rheinmetall.

As part of this military buildup, in April 2024, a detachment of 20 German soldiers arrived in Lithuania in order to oversee the construction of a new NATO base in the Baltic nation amid concerns Lithuania may be a key invasion point if the Russian Federation entered into armed conflict with NATO.

Zeitenwende has been perceived as a relative success, as Germany is set to reach NATO's 2% GDP spending goal for the first time since the late 1990s, a trend that can also be seen with numerous other NATO members since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius promised soldiers in April that the state “will do everything we can to equip the brigade the way it needs to be equipped right from the start." The established military base will be the first permanent stationing of German soldiers outside of the country since the end of World War II, showcasing European concerns surrounding the Russian Federation.

The strengthening of Germany's military will be a difficult path as the Bundeswehr faces years of underfunding and low numbers of those willing to serve. With what many European nations perceive to be Russian aggression on the rise, it remains unknown if Germany will be prepared for a serious military confrontation with their eastern neighbor.

Tabasco Mexico Gets More Heat

_{By: Trent Barr, Staff Writer for Atlas}

A total of 180 Mexican military personnel arrived in the state of Tabasco to strengthen security operations on Thursday following a series of violent incidents in recent hours.

Rising Violence in Tabasco

The state governor, Javier May Rodríguez, announced the army’s arrival around 7:00 AM via social media, noting that the measure was implemented to ensure the "tranquility" of the population.

“Today, 180 members of the Mexican Army arrived in Tabasco to reinforce security and bring peace to our people,” the governor posted on his X account.

He also expressed gratitude to President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and the Secretariat of National Defense for their support. "We will restore peace," assured May Rodríguez. The governor added that the arrival of the military personnel would bolster security efforts in the state. Shortly before 11:00 AM, the governor shared a video confirming the troops' arrival. In this follow-up post, he revealed that National Guard agents would also participate in security operations alongside the military.

“The 180 members of the Mexican Army and National Guard are now in Tabasco,” stated the governor. The video showed a National Guard aircraft transporting the military personnel to Villahermosa.

According to the state government, the deployment is part of the "Secure Tabasco Operation," which has led to the arrest of over 300 individuals during the current administration.

Before the troops’ arrival, dismembered bodies were discovered along the Villahermosa-Teapa highway, accompanied by messages signed by a criminal group. The remains, found near kilometer 17, are believed to belong to at least three individuals. Photos shared online revealed that the messages were attributed to the Cártel Tabasco Nueva Generación (CTNG) and included threats against Víctor Hugo Chávez, Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC).

On the evening of January 13, another set of human remains was found in plastic bags and lined up in rows at the municipal cemetery in Nacajuca. As with the earlier incident, a message signed by the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) was discovered at the scene. That same day, around 10:00 PM, a confrontation occurred between security forces and armed civilians on the Villahermosa-Cárdenas highway near the González ranchería.

The clash resulted in the death of a police officer and injuries to three others. According to the Tabasco government, the injured officers received medical treatment and are currently in stable condition.

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