The Situation Room - January 29th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Trent Barr, and welcome to The Situation Room!

Rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo have seized a major city amidst increased violence in the past months. Federal authorities bust two Mexican nationals with 130,000 Fentanyl pills, and are allegedly linked to major Mexican drug cartels. Large scale raids in Chile lead to almost two dozen suspected Venezuelan gang members to be captured.

Let’s get to it!

• Rebel Forces Seize Key City in DRC

• Major Drug Bust in Colorado Leads to Alleged Links With Mexican Cartels

• Chile Cracks Down on Venezuelan Gang Tren De Aragua

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Rebel Forces Seize Key City in the Democratic Republic of Congo

_{By: Ian Hines, Geopolitical Analyst & Intern for Atlas}

In less than three days of fighting, the M23 resistance movement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has claimed control of the city of Goma, the capital of North Kivu. The insurgency waged by M23, short for 23rd of March Movement, rapidly intensified in January as the rebels launched an offensive across Kivu. Within a few weeks, they had reached the outskirts of the provincial capital, and claimed they had taken the city on January 28th.

Despite their claims of noninvolvement, Rwanda was informed on January 25th that the Congo would cease all diplomatic ties due to accusations of Kigali supporting M23. Kinshasa has long accused their neighbor of financial and material support to the rebellion, with more extreme claims emerging this week of Rwandan snipers being responsible for the assassination of North Kivu’s military governor on January 24th. South Africa, a longtime supporter of the Congo in the conflict, also reported a loss of nine peacekeepers amidst the rebel offensive.

The rebels approached the city from the north on the 25th, with heavy artillery bombardment striking both inside and to the north of Goma. Hundreds of thousands were displaced as gun battles erupted within the city, with intense combat between M23 and the Congolese Army persisting for several days. After just two days of fighting, rebels had reached the airport and captured it, cutting off the sole source of humanitarian aid to the city. Reports of bodies present on the streets were repeated by local and UN sources, describing an apocalyptic scene taking place in the city.

Kinshasa claims to still hold the city, but Uruguayan UN personnel in the area have claimed 1200 Congolese troops surrendered to the rebels. Some pockets of resistance have been confirmed, as sporadic gunfire and explosions were still heard across the city on the 28th. The head of the International Committee of Red Cross in Congo, Francois Moreillon, claimed that a medical warehouse had been looted by rebel fighters. According to Moreillon, several dangerous pathogens including ebola were located within, which could represent a threat if the building was structurally damaged.

Anger grips Kinshasa at Rwandan involvement

In the Congolese capital city of Kinshasa, angry crowds attacked several embassies in protest of the crisis in Goma, blaming outside powers for the suffering taking place. The United States, Kenyan, Ugandan, French, Rwandan and Belgian embassies all saw crowds of protesters attempting to breach. Fires were set at the gates of the Belgian Embassy, but security forces were able to push back the crowds with tear gas and riot gear. At the Kenyan Embassy, local witnesses claimed that the Congolese authorities made no effort to halt protesters from breaching the compound, which led to it being completely ransacked and looted.

Claims of Rwandan involvement in the Eastern DRC have persisted since the end of the Second Congo War in 2003. Known as the “African World War” due to the level of devastation and the participation of most nations in the region, the war left the Congo devastated and allowed the seeds of the current Kivu Conflict to start.

With the Congo being trapped in a state of instability, Rwanda is believed by the United Nations and other observers of supporting Congolese militias to take control of valuable resources in the region, including coltan. In 2012, M23 previously seized Goma for the first time, supported by Rwanda. The United States and outside nations placed sanctions on Rwanda, and the rebels were eventually pushed back from the city by Congolese and UN forces by the end of the year.

However, Rwanda has since made itself a useful ally of the West. It is the second-largest donor of peacekeeping forces to the United Nations, as well as helping to defeat an Islamist insurgency in Mozambique in 2021, defending a French gas project in the process. It has also made itself open to accepting asylum seekers from Europe, helping alleviate the refugee crisis there. So far, the US and others have not shown the same willingness to apply pressure to Kigali to end the offensive.

Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda escalated once more as M23 marched on Goma for the second time in 2025, with the DRC’s foreign minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner alleging that Rwandan troops participated in the Goma offensive, and described the assault on the city as a “declaration of war”.

Outside observers have since warned of a return of regional conflict. The UN-backed peacekeeping mission, The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), has a far smaller presence than it did in 2012 and other African nations are hesitant to intervene again.

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