Good morning everyone,

I’m Trent Barr, and welcome to The Situation Room! 

There’s plenty to discover this week! Honduras is threatening to end their relationship with the US Military over a spat with the Panama Canal. Over a dozen minors are rescued after armed rebels kidnapped them in Columbia. Two hitmen wound up dead after a clash with police in Sonora, Mexico.

Let’s get to it!

• Honduras Threatens To End US Military Presence

• 19 Minors Rescued From Columbian Gang

• Mexican Hitmen Dead Following Clash With Sonoran Police

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Honduras Stands Firm Against Panama Canal Takeover

_{By: Trent Barr, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The president of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, threatened to end military cooperation with the United States if president-elect Donald Trump carries out his plan to enact mass deportations of irregular migrants who entered the United States from South and Central America. Castro announced her plans to end cooperation with the US if Trump carries out his plan in a New Year’s address in which the Honduran president stated that military bases in Honduras would “lose all reason to exist”.

Worsening Relations

Castro stated that despite the United States maintaining a military presence in Honduras, the US government has not made significant contributions to Honduras, and Trump’s plan to carry out mass deportations would further harm the already tense relationship between the two countries.

“In the face of a hostile attitude of mass expulsion of our brothers, we would have to consider a change in our cooperation policies with the United States, especially in the military field, where for decades, without paying a cent, they maintained military bases on our territory, which in this case would lose all reason to exist in Honduras,” Castro said in her address.

Honduras hosts a key US task force in a Honduran air force base known as Soto Cano, which was originally constructed in 1940 and later hosted the Joint Task Force Bravo in 1983 following an increase in the presence of communist groups in Honduras and neighboring Nicaragua. The deployment of Joint Task Force Bravo to Honduras also coincided with the Central Intelligence Agency’s support of the anti-communist armed group known as the Contras, who fought against the Sandinista government of Nicaragua following the Somoza family’s loss of political control of the country.

While the Contras are no longer active, Joint Task Force Bravo has become a vital US force to counter narcotics trafficking through Central America, while the air force base itself provides an important stopping point for US aircraft traveling across Central America. Alongside their operations against narco-traffickers, Joint Task Force Bravo also plays a major role in US efforts to provide disaster relief in the region.

Despite Castro’s statement decrying the US’ lack of payment towards Honduras for the base, supporters of the US’ presence argue that the US’ military presence aids Honduras in regards to counter-narcotics operations, humanitarian aid, and development of the surrounding area.

“The US military presence in Honduras is generally popular, makes an economic contribution, and provides specific benefits to Honduras in terms of infrastructure development, intelligence, and emergency assistance in times of extreme weather, which often impacts Honduras,” Eric Olson, a global fellow at the Wilson Center, told Al Jazeera.

Castro’s threat comes at a time of deteriorating relations between the United States and Honduras. In August 2024, Honduras’ Foreign Ministry threatened to end a century-old extradition treaty between the two nations following statements made by the US Ambassador to Honduras during a meeting between Honduras' Defense Minister, Jose Manuel Zelaya, and Venezuela's own Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino. During this meeting, the United States' ambassador, Laura Dogu, told local news reporters that she was "surprised" that Honduran officials chose to meet with "drug traffickers." Padrino was indicted by the United States for narcotics smuggling in 2020, a common trend within the upper echelon of Venezuela's military, as illustrated with the conviction of Cliver Alcala, a general within the Venezuelan military.

The recent deterioration of relations between the US and Honduras may be evidence of the US' diminishing influence within the country compared to other heavyweights in the international community, such as China. Honduras joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative on June 12, 2023. Aside from the possibility of diminished influence, the decision to terminate the extradition treaty between both nations may be the product of Castro's personal interests. The treaty between Honduras and the United States largely deals with narcotics trafficking charges, allowing high-profile drug traffickers to be sent to the United States, where the risk of escape or judicial corruption is significantly lower.

Colombian Security Forces Rescue 19 Minors From Armed Rebels

_{By: Trent Barr, Staff Writer for Atlas}

Nineteen minors who were forcibly recruited by a splinter faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as the Estado Mayor Central (FARC-EMC) were rescued by Colombian security forces following a number of military operations against the armed group, the Colombian military stated in a press statement on Friday.

Forced Recruitment

Those rescued from the armed group include a 14-year-old girl who was recruited by the Ismael Ruiz front, a 13-year-old girl, and a 17-year-old girl who were forcibly recruited by the Isaiah Pardo front. One rescued minor, a 16-year-old boy, who was recruited by the same front, was reportedly responsible for operating drones that targeted the Anzoátegui police station on three occasions, according to the Colombian military.

Nine more minors who were the victims of forced recruitment by the Ismael Ruiz front were freed in Tolima, while three other minors who were involved in the distribution of narcotics were rescued by authorities. The Colombian military further stated that two other minors who the armed group attempted to recruit via social media and take from their home department of Tolima were prevented from leaving the department before contact with the group was made.

The forced recruitment of minors is a common tactic by the FARC-EMC, with the military reporting numerous instances of minors in the custody of the armed group being rescued by armed forces during military operations. This tactic fits into a broader strategy employed by the FARC-EMC in which the group enlists the help of local civilians, both willingly and unwillingly, to assist in attacks, impede the movement of military personnel, and assist in the production and distribution of narcotics, the group’s main source of income.

In one notable instance, the FARC-EMC allegedly called upon the civilian populace of Cauca, a region known for the group’s large presence, to interfere with military operations launched by the Colombian military in the region. The supposed request was revealed in a report published by the Colombian military in which members of the armed group told locals that children and pregnant women should approach armored vehicles used by the military and attempt to prevent further movement by security forces through their communities. Locals were further encouraged to orchestrate large-scale demonstrations against security forces and conduct raids against positions held by the Colombian military in an effort to force out security forces from the region, allowing for the armed group to assert further control over disputed areas.

The group’s use of forced recruitment is so extensive that it ultimately led to the dissolution of a ceasefire between the FARC-EMC and the Colombian government. In March, members of the FARC-EMC attempted to forcibly recruit a minor who belonged to an indigenous community who was returning from school. Witnesses attempted to prevent the kidnapping, leading to a confrontation between locals and members of the armed group, which resulted in the death of a community leader identified as Carmelina Yule Pavi after the group began firing “indiscriminately” into those attempting to assist the minor.

Since the dissolution of the ceasefire, conflict between the armed group and the Colombian government has only intensified as efforts to resume the ceasefire or establish a similar agreement have fallen flat. While operations against the armed group have resulted in significant losses, both to key leaders within the armed group alongside the loss of El Plateado, a key stronghold of the FARC-EMC used for the transfer of narcotics into neighboring Ecuador, the group has continued their criminal operations. It remains unknown when or if the FARC-EMC will be sufficiently destroyed as military operations continue.

Gunfire Exchanged By Hitmen And Police In Sonora, Mexico

_{By: Trent Barr, Staff Writer for Atlas}

Two alleged criminals were pronounced dead following a clash between Mexican authorities and who are believed to be cartel hitmen on a road in Sonora, Mexico. The clash that left the pair of alleged hitmen dead took place in the early hours of Tuesday morning near a local landmark known as Cerro de la Virgen (Hill of the Virgin), located between the municipalities of Hermosillo and Guaymas.

Violence Continues to Reign Over Mexico

The confrontation began when local and state authorities located a suspicious vehicle with armed men traveling on the road. When authorities stopped the vehicle, a firefight quickly broke out between the alleged hitmen and security forces while civilian traffic was still present on the road. The firefight lasted several minutes, during which a car was overturned and burst into flame amid the ensuing chaos.

It is currently unknown which criminal organization those killed in the firefight belong to; however, it is believed the occupants of the vehicle are members of a cartel due to Sonora’s border with the United States’ Arizona and the state’s key role in the transfer of narcotics across the Mexico-America border.

The clash between the alleged cartel hitmen and Mexican authorities is part of the broader cartel conflict within Mexico that has only increased in recent months following the arrest of notorious drug lord and founding figure of the Sinaloa Cartel, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, on July 25, 2024. Following his arrest, Sinaloa has fallen into a bloody civil war due to El Mayo’s claims that his arrest was orchestrated by the Chaptios, a faction within the cartel that is led by the sons of notorious drug lord Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán. Since his arrest, those loyal to El Mayo have formed their own faction known as La Mayiza, which is led by one of the sons of El Mayo.

Since then, numerous murders have been attributed to the internal conflict within Sinaloa, while both factions have launched their own propaganda campaigns in an effort to win over Sinaloa’s civilian population, weakening their opposition. One such effort was conducted by La Mayiza, who previously dispersed fliers to the civilian population of Culiacán in which the faction promised to end the “abuses” carried out by the Chapitos. In the pamphlets dispersed by the faction, it denounced the “government that supports them [Chapitos]” before providing a number for civilians to report any such instances of alleged corruption.

As conflict between and within Mexico’s cartels continues to plague the nation, pressure to address the security crisis within the country continues to mount on the nation’s newly elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, both within Mexico and from the United States.

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