The Situation Room - July 23rd

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• ‘Pro-China’ Taiwan Politicians Face Recall Elections

• Trump: The Philippines Will Pay A 19% Tariff

• China To Build $167 Billion Mega-Dam, Worries Neighboring Countries In Pursuit Of Goal

‘Pro-China’ Taiwan Politicians Face Recall Elections

_{By: Atlas}

Taiwanese voters will decide on July 26th whether to remove 24 Kuomintang (KMT) legislators—about one‑fifth of the parliament—in what organizers call the island’s first mass recall of sitting lawmakers. A second batch of seven KMT members faces balloting on August 23rd, bringing the total threat to 31 seats. If even half of the targeted lawmakers lose, the KMT‑led opposition could forfeit its combined majority with the Taiwan People’s Party in the 113‑seat Legislative Yuan, reshaping legislative math just eight months after President Lai Ching‑te took office.

Political Stakes

Recall backers—loosely aligned civic groups supported by Lai’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)—portray the KMT as “pro‑China” obstructionists who have stalled defense spending and advanced bills that, in their view, weaken Taiwan’s constitutional order and international reach. Their campaign slogan urges voters to “unseat pro‑China lawmakers who seek to sell out Taiwan”. KMT leaders counter that they are exercising legitimate oversight, not Beijing’s agenda, and accuse the DPP of abusing recall rules to punish dissent and tighten its grip on power.

Under Taiwan’s recall mechanism, a simple majority of valid ballots can oust a lawmaker provided turnout tops 25 % of the district’s eligible voters; any vacancy triggers a by‑election within three months. Because most of the threatened seats lie in competitive swing constituencies, both parties see the recalls as a popular referendum on cross‑strait policy and Lai’s handling of China’s escalating military pressure.

Campaign Arguments

At weekend rallies in Taipei, activists labeled the opposition “incompetent” and claimed its motions had “plunged Taiwan into serious crises” by undermining democratic checks. Volunteers singled out measures that would ease residency for Chinese spouses and tie Taipei’s foreign‑policy leverage to Beijing’s approval, saying such votes “benefited Beijing” and endangered security.

The KMT urges supporters to cast a “no” vote to send President Lai a message. Party spokespeople argue that Taiwan must keep channels open with Beijing to protect agricultural exports and lower regional tensions; labeling every engagement “selling out” Taiwan, they say, ignores economic realities and paints moderates as traitors. At a news conference, KMT communications chief Tony Lin insisted the party is “pro‑communication, not pro‑Beijing”.

Civil‑rights groups on the KMT side frame the recalls as political persecution. At a Taoyuan street rally, youth speakers warned that using recall tools for partisan gain “puts the public’s safety and livelihoods at risk” and could drag ordinary citizens into a cross‑strait conflict. Organizers urged voters to reject “malicious recalls and the separatist agenda” and accused the DPP of stoking fear rather than pursuing genuine peace talks with China.

Beijing Factor

China’s government and state media have loudly denounced the recall drive, calling it a “political scheme” to silence opposition voices; Taipei researchers recorded more than 400 mainland articles labeling the effort “green terror” in the first half of 2025. The rhetoric worries KMT strategists, who fear being “painted red” yet cannot control Beijing’s messaging. DPP lawmakers, for their part, say the mainland’s intervention only underscores why the KMT’s China outreach poses a danger. Recall leaders claim Beijing’s statements prove their charge that opposition lawmakers are too cozy with the Communist Party, while the KMT insists the contest is “our business”—a domestic fight over legislative direction, not a proxy war for the mainland.

Possible Outcomes and Next Steps

Should a significant number of recalls succeed, the DPP could regain working control of committees and budgets it lost in January, paving the way for larger defense appropriations and firmer cross‑strait stances. Conversely, if most KMT incumbents survive, Lai’s minority presidency will remain hemmed in by an opposition majority hostile to his security agenda. Turnout is the wild card: activists estimate they need at least one‑quarter of eligible voters to cast ballots in each district—a target easier to hit in urban areas than in rural strongholds.

The first round’s results on July 26th will set the tone for the August 23rd follow‑up. A sweep against the KMT could embolden campaigners to launch additional recalls next year, while a poor showing may convince organizers that the electorate views the tactic as overreach. Either way, the recall wave has already injected new volatility into Taiwan’s politics, sharpening debates over how the island should meet China’s challenge and how far democratic tools should be stretched in that fight.

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