The Situation Room - June 25th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Trump Chides Both Sides

• US Grants 30 Million To Aid Operation In Gaza

• Analysis: What Iranian Strikes Did To The Markets

Trump Chides Both Sides

_{By: Atlas}

The 24-hour truce announced by President Donald Trump between Israel and Iran survived its first full day, but only after each side tested the limits of the agreement with fresh strikes that threatened to collapse the deal almost as soon as it began. Within three hours of the scheduled start time on Tuesday morning, Israel destroyed an Iranian air-defense radar complex near Tehran, claiming the action was retaliation for a trio of Iranian ballistic missiles that crossed into Israeli airspace. Israeli interceptors brought down the missiles before they reached populated areas, yet debris landed near Beersheba—an attack that police later said killed four civilians and injured more than twenty. Iran’s military denied launching any rockets after the cease-fire deadline; state television instead blamed the continuing explosions in Israel on delayed detonations from earlier barrages.

Trump’s Public Rebuke

Facing reporters on the South Lawn before leaving for a NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump delivered an unusually blunt reprimand aimed at both governments. “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*** they are doing,” the president said, adding that he was “really unhappy” with Jerusalem for striking back so quickly and “fed up” with Tehran for destabilizing the agreement it had just accepted. The admonition grew sharper on Trump’s Truth Social feed. In all-caps posts he warned, “ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS… IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” Minutes later he issued a parallel message aimed at Iran, insisting that “ANY MORE MISSILES WILL END THE DEAL.”

White House officials disclosed that Trump spoke twice with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and once with Iran’s acting foreign minister Abbas Araghchi during the tense morning window. According to a senior aide, the president threatened to suspend U.S. logistical support for Israeli air operations if additional bombing runs over Tehran continued, while also warning Iran that renewed attacks on U.S. forces or Israeli cities would trigger automatic sanctions snap-backs.

Sequence of Violations

Israeli military spokesmen said the radar strike at 3 a.m. local time was intended to pre-empt what intelligence suggested would be a larger Iranian salvo. Within hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced it had launched 14 missiles “in the final minutes before the cease-fire” to avenge Israeli hits on nuclear scientists and command centers. Israel tallied only three incoming rockets, all intercepted. Defense analysts noted that both sides appear to be calibrating their actions—large enough to signal determination but limited enough to avoid mass casualties that would force escalation.

Even so, collateral damage has accumulated. Israeli first responders reported more than 1,000 wounded since the air campaign began on June 13. Iranian monitoring groups say at least 974 people have died from Israeli precision strikes, including 14 senior nuclear scientists. The most recent fatality was Mohammad Reza Sedighi Saber, head of a weapons-research unit, killed in a targeted strike on his father-in-law’s home hours before the cease-fire.

Diplomatic Efforts to Stabilize

The fragile agreement now rests on a phased implementation timetable negotiated by U.S., Qatari, and European intermediaries. Iran is expected to halt missile and drone launches entirely; Israel must end offensive sorties against Iranian territory twelve hours after verified compliance. Qatar’s emir has assumed the role of guarantor, empowered to convene emergency calls if new violations occur. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice-President JD Vance are coordinating a follow-up meeting in Doha to establish a de-confliction hotline and explore longer-term limits on missile ranges and enrichment levels.

In Congress, reactions divided along familiar lines. House Speaker Mike Johnson said the cease-fire put the region “on the verge of real peace” and praised Trump’s direct style for preventing wider war. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Chris Coons welcomed the pause but warned that “lasting stability requires credible nuclear limits and verification—neither of which exist today.”

Regional and Market Reactions

Financial markets mirrored the diplomatic whiplash. Brent crude had surged past $80 per barrel immediately after the Iranian missiles were reported, then fell back to $67 when it became clear the cease-fire remained intact. By Tuesday’s close Brent settled at $68.18, still down 7 percent from Monday’s high. The S&P 500 gained 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.4 percent as risk appetite recovered. The U.S. Dollar Index, which spiked in early trading, finished the session 0.28 percent lower as investors moved out of safe-haven positions.

Gulf states responded with mixed relief and caution. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates both urged strict adherence to the timeline, noting that any renewed exchange could endanger shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. China, Iran’s largest oil customer, publicly backed the cease-fire and welcomed Trump’s statement that Beijing could “continue to purchase oil from Iran” under current sanctions waivers.

Next 48 Hours

The immediate test is whether Iran will stand down additional proxy militias. U.S. Central Command reported that drones attempted to strike two coalition bases in Iraq overnight; both were intercepted without casualties, but any link to Iranian proxies would complicate cease-fire verification. Israeli intelligence is also watching for evidence that Iran is relocating stockpiles of enriched uranium. Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel “reserves full freedom of action” should Tehran resume nuclear advancement.

For the moment, Trump’s public scolding—and the implicit threat of withdrawing American backing—has kept both combatants in check. Whether the cease-fire can transition into a longer-term accord will depend on technical talks now scheduled in Doha and the political calculus in Tehran and Jerusalem. As one White House official summarized, “The president’s message was clear: knock it off and talk, or face the consequences.”

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