The Situation Room - March 12th

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Today’s topics:

• 72 Hours In: Over 1,000 People Killed in Coastal Syria Uprising

• IDF Continues To Barrage Hezbollah Strongholds

• Ukrainian Peace Plan To Be Presented in U.S. Led Talks

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72 Hours In: Over 1,000 People Killed in Coastal Syria Uprising

_{By: Maxwell Ingalls, Residing Fellow For Atlas}

On Thursday March 6^th militants simultaneously attacked dozens of Syrian transitional government (STG) security checkpoints and strategic targets throughout the coastal region of Latakia in what is this far the most coordinated resistance operation against the STG which is led by the former militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, also referred to as Abu Mohammad al-Julani. The attacks are not the first in the Latakia governate but have been the deadliest and most coordinated since the establishment in of the transitional government. The Latakia governate is home to the majority of the Alawite minority group, which is the religious group that deposed leader Bashar Al-Assad belonged to and relied heavily on for government and military positions and is an offshoot of mainstream Shia Islam. Latakia governate is also advantageous for the pro-Assad resistance groups as it is a rugged and mountainous terrain making it ideal for guerilla warfare operations. In response, combatants of the new Syrian Armed Forces and the Turkish proxy Syrian National Army (SNA) committed dozens of massacres and revenge killings against those perceived to be supporters of the uprising or of the previous Assad regime, mostly Alawites but Shia, Druze, and Christians have also been targeted to a lesser degree. Al-Sharaa has called on all STG combatants to abide by international law and to prosecute those involved in the killings but has demonstrated that Damascus’ control over radical elements within its fledgling military is weak.

The Coastal Uprising

During the day on March 6^th several anti-government militant groups STG checkpoints in in the Latakia governate including in the city of Jableh and two surrounding villages, Daliyah and Beit Ana. In the attacks 15 security personnel of the Syrian transitional government were killed along with many more injured. Several resistance groups have sprung up since the creation of the STG including the Syrian Popular Resistance, Shield of the Coastal Brigade, and the recently formed Military Council for the Liberation of Syria. It is unknown who leads the Syrian Popular Resistance, but they have been carrying out attacks since December on isolated STG security checkpoints, as well as kidnapping STG security personnel. The leader of the Shield of the Costal Brigade is Muqdad Fataha, who commanded Assads premier Republican Guard unit, released a video statement of Friday, March 7^th claiming several attacks in the Baniya area of Latakia. The leader of the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria is believed to be Ghiath Dalah, who commanded Assads 4^th Division.

After the initial operations by resistance groups, the Syrian Transitional Government and its allies in the Syrian National Army began to flood in units of fighters from Hama, Homs, Aleppo, Idlib, and Damascus. Many of these units were not ordered to move into Latakia and instead went on their own volition. By Thursday night reports and social media posts circulated of large convoys of troops moving into Latakia Governate being ambushed by pro-Assadist resistance fighters. The SNA and STG forces looked highly disorganized, firing randomly into the dark, which has been indicative of their counter-insurgency performance thus far.  Assadist militants also attacked the Naval Academy located in Jableh, managing to hold parts of the complex for several hours before being pushed out by STG security forces. On March 7^th intense clashes persisted as the new Syrian security forces and SNA fighters attempted to reseize control of several areas and cities including Baniyas, Tartous, Jableh, Qardaha, and Latakia City. It was reported that the fighting was most intense in Jableh where resistance groups used mortars and small arms in ambushes. Resistance fighters also attempted to storm a hospital in Jableh but were repelled by security forces.

One video posted to X on March 7^th shows Coastal Shield Brigade fighters with a T-55 Main Battle Tank, likely one of the few pieces of armor the group has in its arsenal as most fighters are armed with small-arms. Resistance groups also posted to telegram showing kidnapped STG soldiers and policemen, many of which have since been found to have been killed. The Syrian Transitional Government announced on March 7^th that 150 insurgents had been either killed or captured since the fighting began. One of those captured is Ibrahim Huweija who was an intelligence officer in Assads Air Force Intelligence. Huweija is believed to have played a role in dozens of massacres and assassinations at the behest of the Assad family including the 1977 killing of Lebanese-Druze leader Kamal Jumblatt. By March 8^th and 9^th the fighting had subsided with isolated ambushes and attacks by the insurgents. Syrian security personnel have responded with drones and artillery fire to attack the insurgents who are holding out in the Coastal Mountain Range. In a video posted to X, it appears that the STG also used barrel bombs dropped from a MI-24 helicopter, although it has not been verified. Barrel bombs were a staple of the Assad regime when more advance munition stocks began to run low, and was something the regime was criticized internationally for due to the bombs being unguided, making them extremely dangerous for the civilian population. Reports have also circulated of electrical lines and a water station being sabotaged by insurgent forces in Latakia and Tartous, meant to undermine the authority of the ruling STG. On March 9^th and 10^th, only a couple attacks were recorded by the insurgents with one taking place in Damascus against the Headquarters of General Security and one taking place in Jableh., On March 7^th the STG expanded the clearing operation to Hama and with the attack in Damascus shows that anti-government fighters are present in multiple cities throughout the country. So far 231 security personnel and 250 insurgents have been killed in the fighting which will surely rise as sporadic attacks continue.

Sectarianism and Massacres

On the morning of March 7^th dozens of videos began to appear of executions carried out by elements of the Syrian internal security forces and the Turkish-backed SNA. In some of the videos it appears dozens of men were killed, with security forces standing on the bodies. In other instances, families and teenagers were shot and killed by security forces. Nearly 1,000 civilians were killed in 39 separate massacres, the majority of them being Alawite. Many elements in the Syrian military use Assads religious identity as an excuse to group all Alawites as collaborators of the Assad regime which is not the case. Videos were also posted showing the looting of homes and shops as well as the desecration of Christian icons. Others showed mass graves and the beating of civilians with sticks, as well as making them crawl and bark on all fours. Hundreds of Alawite civilians managed to flee the dehumanization and massacres to the Russian base of Hmeimim and were eventually allowed to seek refuge after hours of waiting at the gates. The massacres have stoked an even greater fear within Syria’s minorities whose government is entirely Sunni, as the central government has proven that they are incapable of purging jihadist and sectarian elements from its security forces or being able to stop these sectarian murders from taking place. Interim president al-Sharaa released a statement that proclaimed to establish a fact-finding commission about the massacres as well as holding those who were involved accountable. However, this would be difficult to accomplish considering many of the massacres were carried out by SNA units who are not controlled by Damascus but instead Turkey.

Syria’s Future

Syria’s future is looking quite bleak. Due to the transitional government’s inability to control the more radical elements of its security forces and its entirely Sunni government it will be difficult to quell the sectarian violence. It will also be difficult for the government to address the grievances of Syria’s minorities without giving them some form of representation in the national government. The groups responsible for the uprising will use these grievances and the massacres to recruit new fighters, many of which may have never been pro-Assad or Baathist. The groups responsible for the uprising are becoming more capable and organized, which was demonstrated by the groups capturing several towns and cities. The resistance is also beginning to coordinate its efforts as well as expanding to other areas of Syria such as Homs and Damascus. Although Assad is deposed, many of these groups are battle hardened, well-trained, and could use past connections to create new cells throughout Syria. The nature guerilla warfare will also lead to a drawn-out campaign, with many insurgents simply withdrawing from the area rather than being crushed over the weekend. The attack on the General Security Headquarters demonstrates the ability of the resistance to strike protected targets in government-controlled territory which could have the effect of decreasing trust in ability new Syrian state to provide security. If the new fledgling government truly wants to bring peace to Syria it must reevaluate its counter-insurgency tactic of mass repression, as the violence which occurred over the weekend is playing into the hands of the insurgents and will only prolong the insurgency.

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