The Situation Room - March 26th

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I’m Daniel, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Truce on the Black Sea

• India Plays Ball, Seeks To Diminish US Tariffs

• Belarusian’s Only President Sworn in For Seventh Term

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Truce on the Black Sea

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After days of intense negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the United States has secured separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine to establish a limited ceasefire in the Black Sea and halt attacks on energy infrastructure. The deal, announced Tuesday, represents the most concrete diplomatic breakthrough in the three-year war and could serve as a stepping stone toward broader peace talks.

The Terms of the Truce

The agreement contains two key components: ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea and implementing a 30-day ban on strikes against energy facilities that began March 18.

"The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," the White House said in a statement following the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov confirmed similar language but added an important caveat: "All movement by Russia of its military vessels outside of the eastern part of the Black Sea will constitute violation of the spirit of this agreement, will be regarded as violation of the commitment to ensure safe navigation and threat to the national security of Ukraine."

The energy infrastructure truce, which Trump secured in separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week, prohibits attacks on power plants and energy facilities for 30 days.

Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine's power grid throughout the war, causing widespread blackouts and civilian suffering. More recently, Ukraine has launched long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas targets, arguing they fuel Moscow's war machine.

Concessions and Conditions

For Russia, the deal comes with American promises to help restore its access to global agricultural and fertilizer markets, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.

However, the Kremlin signaled that full implementation might be contingent on sanctions relief. According to a statement late Tuesday, Russia demands the lifting of sanctions on Rosselkhozbank JSC (the Russian Agricultural Bank) and other financial institutions involved in food and fertilizer trade, including reconnection to the SWIFT international payments system.

This condition could complicate matters, as SWIFT is overseen by the central banks of the G-10 nations and the European Central Bank, not just the United States.

Trump's Peace Push

The agreements emerge from President Donald Trump's campaign pledge to swiftly end the Ukraine war. After his January inauguration, Trump has shifted U.S. policy from firmly backing Kyiv to a more balanced approach that critics say tilts toward Moscow.

The Saudi Arabia talks followed separate phone calls between Trump and the two presidents last week. During those calls, Trump proposed a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine agreed to but Putin rejected, instead agreeing only to the energy infrastructure truce.

White House officials remain ambitious, with Bloomberg reporting they aim to reach a full ceasefire as early as April 20 — a timeline Ukrainian and European officials view as unrealistic.

"This is a first step toward a broader ceasefire that will lead to peace negotiations," said a senior administration official speaking on condition of anonymity. "President Trump is delivering on his promise to end this conflict, but we recognize there's still significant work ahead."

Implementation Challenges

Both sides express skepticism about the other's willingness to honor the agreement and are looking to Washington as the enforcer.

"If the Russians violate this, then I have a direct question for President Trump. If they violate, here is the evidence - we ask for sanctions, we ask for weapons, etc.," Zelensky told reporters at a news conference in Kyiv.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov echoed similar concerns from Moscow's perspective: "We will need clear guarantees. And given the sad experience of agreements with just Kyiv, the guarantees can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelensky and his team to do one thing and not the other."

Neither the White House nor the parties involved have specified exactly how the truce will be monitored or enforced, raising questions about its durability.

Limited Scope but Significant Symbolism

Maritime battles have been a relatively minor aspect of the war since 2023, when Russia withdrew its naval forces from the eastern Black Sea following successful Ukrainian attacks. Kyiv has since reopened its ports and resumed exports close to pre-war levels, despite Russia's withdrawal from a previous UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal last year.

Nevertheless, the agreement carries symbolic and practical importance. Russia ranks as the world's biggest wheat exporter, accounting for more than a fifth of global trade. Ukraine also remains a significant crop exporter despite the war.

"This agreement helps protect the food security of nations around the world that depend on Black Sea grain exports," said a State Department official familiar with the negotiations.

European Allies Wary

While the U.S. portrays the deal as progress, Ukraine's European allies fear Trump could rush into a broader agreement that undermines Kyiv's sovereignty.

European diplomats worry that Trump might pressure Ukraine to abandon its NATO aspirations and cede territory in exchange for peace — conditions that Zelensky has rejected as "tantamount to surrender."

A U.S. intelligence assessment released Tuesday suggested both Russia and Ukraine might actually see greater incentives to prolong the conflict rather than rush into a full settlement. The report noted that Putin appears to be playing for time, believing that continued fighting might extract more concessions from Ukraine and its allies.

As technical-level discussions continue on implementing the limited truce, the path to comprehensive peace remains uncertain. Washington now faces the delicate task of balancing Trump's desire for a quick diplomatic victory against the complex realities of a war with deep historical roots and seemingly irreconcilable positions on territory, security, and Ukraine's future.

"We've taken an important first step," said a State Department spokesperson. "But no one should be under any illusions about the difficult road ahead."

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