Good morning everyone,

Good morning, and welcome to The Situation Room. Today we’ll be an ambush on a Wagner/FAMA convoy in Mali, the arrest of a retired Colombian army colonel for the assassination of a human rights advocate, and the agreement to a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.

JNIM Ambushes Wagner/FAMA Convoy Along Sévaré-Bandiagara Road

Al-Qaeda-linked militant group, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) has claimed an attack on a convoy of Malian military personnel (FAMA) and Russian mercenaries operating attached to Russia's Wagner Group (Africa Corps). The ambush, conducted along the RN15 linking the town of Sévaré to the town of Bandiagara in Mali's Mopti region, which is seen as the 'frontier between the nation's government-held south and rebel-held north' resulted in the death of approximately seven men, with at least one Wagner member killed. The death toll may be higher as just one video of the deceased has been released by the Islamic militant group.

What You Need to Know

In recent weeks, Islamic militant violence in Mali's central regions has increased exponentially, with rising attacks on civilians at the hands of governmental and non-governmental forces a cause for concern.

Currently, the nation is awash with non-state and state actors, each with competing objectives. Russia's Wagner group, which was recruited by the Malian junta in 2021, bolsters the military regime of Colonel Assimi Goita in exchange for resource concessions. The group has also aided the Malian army (FAMA) in its fight against insurgents in the country's north. Currently, the biggest players in the north are Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM)—an umbrella group of Islamic militant organizations such as Ansar al-Din, al-Mourabitoun (MUJAO), Katiba Macina, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)—the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS), and the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), an umbrella group of Tuareg separatist movements.

Wagner losses in the country, as seen during the late July Battle of Tinzaouaten, have likely pushed the Malian authorities to seek out alternative security partners, particularly as each Wagner loss is oftentimes widely publicized, risking the military reputations of both Mali and Russia.

Furthermore, the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones against civilian infrastructure in recent months has elicited outrage from international rights groups. Oftentimes claiming to have hit Islamic militant 'hideouts,' the press service of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), of which Mali currently holds the rotating Presidency, continues to misrepresent military and civilian casualties, as press and internet freedom has greatly diminished in the country since General Assimi Goita seized power in 2021.

Early this month, Amnesty International called for the Malian authorities to investigate the death of at least 8 civilians, including 6 children in Inadiatafane, Timbuktu region on October 21st.

According to an eyewitness, "The drone had been flying over the market since 9am. At around 10am we couldn’t hear it anymore, but at around 11am it came back. Four people died, including two children, an infant, and a man aged around 50. Another infant, aged six months, succumbed to his injuries two hours later. A large number of people were also injured.”

Five of those who were seriously injured were rushed to Timbuktu hospital in a pick-up truck, including a woman and a nine-year-old girl with severe abdominal injuries, a one-year-old baby struck by shrapnel, and two young men, one of whom had suffered a bone fracture.

The nine-year-old girl and the baby died during their transport to Timbuktu hospital on the night of 21-22 October. The woman died two days later in Timbuktu hospital. The two young men are still in hospital in Timbuktu. The less serious cases are being treated at the Inadiatafane health centre.”Additionally, a recently released promotional video by Turkey's CANiK academy, a military-tactical training organization that falls under the SYS Group, showing CANiK members leaving the Azalai hotel in Bamako, points to the entry of yet another external stakeholder into the Malian security crisis.

Retired Colombian Colonel Arrested for Murder of Human Rights Activist

A retired colonel of Colombia’s army was arrested for the murder of Narciso Beleño, a human rights advocate in the south of Colombia’s Bolívar Department who was murdered in April. The retired colonel, identified as José Alejandro Castro Cadavid, allegedly conspired with a faction of the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC), also known as Clan del Golfo, of which the colonel is suspected of being a member.

Operations Against the AGC Continue

Beleño was an outspoken critic of Clan del Golfo in the region, reporting on alleged attacks by the armed group, which included home invasions and kidnappings, among other violent acts, likely provoking the assassination against him. In response to Beleño’s efforts, Clan del Golfo threatened the activist and president of the Federation of Agro-Miners of Southern Bolívar (Fedeagromisbol) but refused to cease his reporting on the alleged crimes of the AGC.

Following Beleño’s murder, the United Nations issued a statement in which the international organization condemned the murder before calling on authorities to properly investigate the crime and apprehend those responsible for the assassination. “We call on authorities to investigate, prosecute, and punish those responsible for this and other killings of human rights defenders. We stand in solidarity with Narciso's family and Fedeagromisbol and will continue to monitor this crime and the situation in southern Bolívar,” the UN said in a statement:.

So far, prosecutors have charged Castro Cadavid with aggravated homicide, aggravated conspiracy to commit a crime, and the manufacture, trafficking, possession, or carrying of firearms and ammunition. The retired colonel has denied all charges.

The arrest of Castro Cadavid comes amid increasing tensions between the Colombian government and Clan del Golfo as operations against the armed group have recently intensified. In another attack by Clan del Golfo, two Colombian police officers were kidnapped, tortured, and stripped of their clothing. According to Semana, a Colombian news outlet, the pair were members of a police unit that works alongside the US government in addressing the smuggling of narcotics in Colombia.

The two officers were reportedly working on a report using photographs in civilian clothes prior to their capture by the AGC in Antioquia, a department known for the large presence of the AGC. During their work, ten members of the AGC approached the pair, searching both the officers and their vehicle, which resulted in the officers’ identities being compromised by the members of the paramilitary organization.

The pair were then reportedly transported to the jungle, where they were tortured by their captors in an effort to extract information regarding information obtained by the police during their investigation. The officers maintained their cover as engineers working with the police’s technological unit. Following 12 hours of torture and interrogation, the members of the AGC released the officers but kept the officers’s personal and professional effects, including their bulletproof vests, service pistols, personal documents, and money, before warning the captured officers.

Israel and Hezbollah Agree to Ceasefire Following 14-Month Conflict

Israel has approved a U.S.-France-brokered ceasefire with Lebanon's Hezbollah militants, set to take effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The agreement seeks to halt over a year of fighting that has left thousands dead and displaced millions, marking a significant step in de-escalating regional tensions. However, the deal does not address the ongoing and severe conflict in Gaza.

The Ceasefire Agreement

The two-month initial ceasefire requires Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of Lebanon's Litani River and calls for the deployment of thousands of Lebanese troops and United Nations peacekeepers in the area. Israel has agreed to pull back its troops to its side of the border. An international monitoring panel led by the United States will oversee compliance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, addressing his security Cabinet, emphasized that Israel would respond forcefully to any violations. "If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to rearm, we will attack with might," he stated. President Joe Biden described the agreement as a "good step" and underscored its potential to reduce tensions between Israel and Iran, which supports both Hezbollah and Hamas.

The ceasefire follows a 14-month conflict that began after Hamas' October 2023 attack on Israel, which triggered a wider regional crisis. Hezbollah entered the fray on October 8, 2023, firing rockets and drones into northern Israel, leading to Israeli retaliatory strikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon.

Lebanese authorities report over 3,760 fatalities due to Israeli bombardments, including numerous civilian casualties. The strikes have displaced over 1.2 million people. Hezbollah claims it has lost over 2,000 fighters in the conflict, while Israel reports 75 deaths, more than half of whom were civilians.

Despite the agreement, skepticism remains. Hezbollah officials have expressed reservations about specific terms, particularly concerning Israel's right to respond to perceived violations. Mahmoud Qamati, a senior Hezbollah leader, remarked that the group's compliance depends on the finalized agreement’s alignment with their stipulations, emphasizing the protection of Lebanese sovereignty.

Hours before the ceasefire announcement, Israel conducted intense airstrikes in Beirut and its southern suburbs, killing 42 people and issuing evacuation warnings for several areas. The strikes prompted widespread panic, with thousands fleeing their homes in gridlocked traffic. The ceasefire could mitigate the risk of a broader conflict involving Iran, which has already exchanged fire with Israel twice this year. While the deal may isolate Hamas in Gaza, the ongoing war there, including the unresolved hostage crisis, remains a critical and volatile issue.

Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati welcomed the ceasefire, calling it a vital step toward stability. However, the road to lasting peace is fraught with challenges, as both sides harbor deep-seated grievances and mistrust.

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