The Situation Room - October 21st

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Witkoff Meets Putin In St. Petersburg For Ukraine Peace Deal

• NATO Reinforces The Black Sea As Romania Says It Is Too Early To Blame Russia

• Drone Strikes Across Sudan And Abyei Kill Scores As Blame Is Disputed

Witkoff Meets Putin In St. Petersburg For Ukraine Peace Deal

_{By: Atlas}

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on Wednesday. He gave Putin documents setting out approaches to a settlement of the war in Ukraine and asked him to restart three-way talks among the United States, Russia and Ukraine at the level of technical teams.

Separately, Russia released Stephen Hubbard, a retired American schoolteacher held since 2022, before the talks began.

The meeting began around 3:55 a.m. CT at the Constantine Palace, lasted about three hours and was over by 7:17 a.m. CT, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Russian state news agency TASS. It was Witkoff’s ninth in-person meeting with Putin, Reuters reported, and came a day after talks in Oslo with Ukraine and European leaders.

An American goes home

After Witkoff thanked him for the release, Putin told him that Hubbard was at St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo Airport, according to the Kremlin transcript. Witkoff said he would meet Hubbard there.

“He is 75 years old, and I thank you for freeing this man,” Witkoff told Putin, according to the Kremlin’s Russian-language transcript. Reuters, NBC News, Axios and The Guardian gave Hubbard’s age as 74.

“You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir,” Witkoff said, as quoted by the BBC.

Hubbard was seized by Russian troops in eastern Ukraine in April 2022, according to Axios. He was serving a sentence of six years and 10 months on mercenary charges he denies, Reuters reported.

Trump said Tuesday that he had raised Hubbard’s release with Putin, Reuters reported. On Truth Social, Trump wrote that the United States “was not required to give anything in return” and that “there was no ‘swap’ necessary for this release,” according to Axios.

What Witkoff put on the table

“I also hope you will consider resuming trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States, within which we could discuss next steps toward a settlement,” Witkoff told Putin, according to Interfax-Ukraine, which cited Russian media. He said the talks could involve technical groups and experts who would work through the issues in detail.

Witkoff said he hoped the sides could discuss the idea even if no final decision came Wednesday, Interfax-Ukraine reported. He said he had brought documents on a peace settlement and asked Putin to review them.

Peskov told the Russian television program Vesti that Putin would review and evaluate all the proposals Witkoff brought, according to TASS.

Jared Kushner, also a U.S. special envoy, joined by phone, Interfax-Ukraine reported. TASS reported that Kushner took part remotely because he was ill. Witkoff said Kushner also wanted to present a few ideas, according to Interfax-Ukraine.

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s special envoy for investment and economic cooperation, sat in for Russia, the Kremlin said.

Peskov told TASS that the two discussed the Ukraine settlement, a potential meeting between Putin and Trump in China, the Persian Gulf and a diesel deal.

The Oslo framework

The proposals followed talks in Oslo on Oct. 20. Witkoff met there with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, bne IntelliNews reported.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the talks made “meaningful progress” toward a coordinated approach to engaging Russia, Reuters reported. The official said the talks covered security guarantees for Ukraine, a postwar economic plan and a broader European security architecture.

Zelenskyy said the document includes guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5, the alliance’s mutual-defense clause. “We discussed NATO, Article 5 and Article 5-like guarantees. Different types of security guarantees are included in the document, which Steve will share with the Russians, and we will hear their feedback,” he said at a news conference with Støre and Stubb, as quoted by bne IntelliNews.

Rubio: ‘Nothing has changed’

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Mumbai on Oct. 20 that he had spoken with Zelenskyy that day for 45 minutes, according to a State Department transcript.

“The Department of War, everything they’ve been doing with Ukraine, remains the same. That has not changed,” Rubio said. On intelligence sharing, he said Trump “made it very clear he’s ordered no such changes. So none of that has changed; none of it.”

Rubio said Ukraine was not being denied interceptor missiles on purpose. “There’s nothing being deliberately denied to Ukraine,” he said, describing a balance between U.S. obligations to other partners and minimum standards for protecting U.S. bases.

Ukraine has complained of disruptions to some intelligence sharing and to its use of the Starshield military satellite system, Reuters reported. Zelenskyy said the Oslo meeting reached agreement to resolve those issues, according to Reuters. He also said U.S. intelligence sharing and ballistic-missile alerts had resumed after he spoke with Rubio, bne IntelliNews reported.

The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter, that Elon Musk ordered a slowdown last week of a military-grade Starlink service that Ukraine relies on. Reuters, which carried the report, said it could not immediately verify it. Musk has said such decisions are made by the U.S. military or the president, according to Reuters. Rubio said in Mumbai on Wednesday that “Starlink is a private company.”

Pressure from Washington

Trump said Tuesday that Zelenskyy is “going to have to want to make a deal, because I don’t think his people are going to stand for it any longer,” Reuters reported.

U.S.-Ukraine ties have deteriorated since Trump announced a diesel export deal with Russia this month to help lower U.S. prices, Reuters reported. High fuel costs have hurt Republicans ahead of the November elections, according to Reuters.

Witkoff’s proposals are now with Putin. The Kremlin has announced no response.

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