The Situation Room - October 28th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Israel’s Election Close To Arriving At Stalemate

• Flávio Bolsonaro Leaves Brazil Despite A Court Order, U.S. Official Says Washington Will Admit Him

• An Iranian Official Disputes A Qatari Draft Deal While Reports Point To A Strike After The Midterms

Israel’s Election Close To Arriving At Stalemate

_{By: Atlas}

Israel’s election has produced no governing majority. With 84.5% of ballot boxes counted as of 5:34 a.m. CT Wednesday, partial results published by the Central Elections Committee give the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 54 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot 49, and the Arab-led parties 17. A majority takes 61.

Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has conceded. About 600,000 ballots cast by soldiers, reservists, diplomats, hospital patients, prisoners and displaced residents have not been counted. The head of the committee’s control center, Elad Naveh, told ynet he expects that count to finish Thursday evening in Israel, though it could run into Friday. Each seat takes about 40,000 votes, according to The Times of Israel. Ynet reported that late ballots usually shift one or two seats, and that in 2021 and 2022 they moved seats among parties without changing the balance between blocs.

What Washington has said

President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Oct. 18, offering a “complete and total endorsement.” Speaking to reporters early Wednesday after a rally in Texas, Trump said, according to The Times of Israel: “From exit polls, I’m hearing [Netanyahu] was doing very well. I think when the endorsement went out, it had helped him a lot.” He said he had not spoken with Netanyahu since results began coming in.

Vice President JD Vance told reporters before the vote: “I’m not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu.” Many of Trump’s senior advisers opposed the endorsement, U.S. officials told Axios, according to World Israel News.

The United States and Israel have been at war with Iran since Feb. 28. The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Washington has told several Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a short but intensive military offensive after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Speaking to supporters Tuesday night, Netanyahu said: “Together with our great friend President Trump, we are determined to eliminate this threat once and for all.”

What the count shows

Exit polls broadcast at 3 p.m. CT Tuesday, when voting ended, pointed the other way. Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 gave Eisenkot’s bloc 52 or 53 seats and Netanyahu’s 50. Updates at about 7:30 p.m. CT tied the blocs at 51 each on Kan and Channel 13. Channel 12’s update gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 and Eisenkot’s 49.

In the committee’s partial results, Netanyahu’s bloc has held at 54 since 3:03 a.m. CT Wednesday, when 72.4% of ballot boxes were counted. Eisenkot’s bloc has ranged from 47 to 49 over that span.

Turnout was 77.7% when polls closed, the committee said, the highest since 1999 and above the 70.6% of 2022. It will rise once the late ballots are added.

Netanyahu’s bloc is Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. Eisenkot’s is his own party, Yashar, plus Together, the joint list of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats led by Yair Golan. The Joint List and Ra’am make up the Arab-led total, which is above the previous high of 15 seats, set in 2020. Eleven lists cleared the 3.25% threshold. The Reservists party, at 2.7%, did not.

Who can reach 61

Netanyahu has ruled out the Arab parties: “These are Palestinian parties, or anti-Zionist parties, who support the destruction of Israel. We cannot have this scenario.” He said Tuesday night that Likud is the largest party and that the right bloc has “a decisive majority among the Zionist public.”

Eisenkot’s bloc cannot reach 61 without the Arab-led parties, either inside a coalition or from outside it, The Times of Israel reported. Eisenkot has said any partner must recognize Israel as a Jewish state and regard Hamas as a terrorist group that must be dismantled. Bennett and Liberman have ruled out a government that includes the Arab parties. Golan has urged one: “We must stop being afraid.”

Joint List chair Yousef Jabareen said: “Anyone who wants to offer a substantive and genuine alternative to Netanyahu’s government of bloodshed will have to talk to us.” Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said: “We will turn the seats we won into a new reality in the country.”

Eisenkot said Tuesday night: “We have made history! The public has voted for change.” He added that it was “only exit polls” and “we need to wait for final results.”

Voting day disputes

Netanyahu said Tuesday in a video to Likud voters: “They are trying to steal the election from us.” He cited the arrest of three men linked to Ra’am, held by police on suspicion of buying votes. Ra’am called the arrests “sham arrests.” The Times of Israel described his fraud claims as unsubstantiated. The Central Elections Committee said it had found no evidence of systematic tampering with ballot slips and was handling individual complaints.

What happens next

Supreme Court Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg, who chairs the committee, told Herzog on Tuesday that he expects to submit official results next Wednesday, Nov. 4. Ynet reported that Herzog prefers to wait for those results before inviting party representatives for consultations. The committee will audit a sample of polling stations on Friday and from Sunday through Tuesday.

Netanyahu remains prime minister until a new government is formed. He is on trial on corruption charges, which he denies. In November 2025 he asked President Isaac Herzog for a pardon, and Herzog has not ruled on the request. Herzog is also the official who decides which lawmaker gets the first chance to form the next government.

Under Basic Law: The Government, the lawmaker the president picks has 28 days to form a government, and the president may extend that by up to 14. The president must make the assignment within seven days of the publication of the election results, which would be Nov. 11 if they are published Nov. 4.

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