The Situation Room - October 7th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• Ukraine Is Out of Patriot Interceptors and Russia Knows It

• Quebec's Separatists Are Back in Power and Five Seats Short of a Referendum

• Burhan Rules Out Talks Days After Lunching With Trump's Sudan Envoy

Ukraine Is Out of Patriot Interceptors and Russia Knows It

_{By: Atlas}

Russian missiles and drones struck Kyiv and 12 Ukrainian regions overnight into Wednesday, Oct. 7, killing at least 20 people, according to tolls Ukrainian officials had released by about 2 p.m. Kyiv time (6 a.m. CT). The attack fell on President Vladimir Putin's 74th birthday.

The deadliest strike destroyed part of a five-story apartment building in Pryluky, in the northern Chernihiv region, where the State Emergency Service said 14 people had been killed. Regional officials said four of the dead were children. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said six more died in Kyiv, Kremenchuk and Oleksandriia.

"This was one of the most vile strikes: 70 missiles in total, many of them ballistic," Zelenskyy said on social media, adding that Russia also launched Shahed drones and that only part of the barrage was shot down. "Today, as a 'birthday gift' to Putin, the Russian army destroyed a residential building in Pryluky," he said. "The Russians wanted to strike painfully and demonstratively."

Patriot shortage and stalled talks

Zelenskyy had warned on Tuesday, Oct. 6, that Russia was preparing a "massive" strike. Ukraine has run short of interceptors for its U.S.-made Patriot systems, the only weapon in its arsenal able to stop high-velocity ballistic missiles. Global stocks have been drained by the Iran war this year and by the war in Ukraine.

"Russian ballistic missiles remain the greatest challenge. And air defense packages for us right now are a vital necessity," Zelenskyy said Wednesday, adding that his government was searching every day for Patriot missiles.

The barrage came three days after Zelenskyy said the United States was proposing a three-way meeting with Ukraine and Russia "at the technical level" by the end of October. He said Sunday, Oct. 4, that Ukraine was ready and open to meeting in the United Arab Emirates. Moscow has not publicly agreed to a date.

Speaking in Reykjavik on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington wanted "to play a constructive role" in ending the war. He added that the administration was "watching the trend lines there and seeing that's not the direction that it's headed right now."

A rising toll in Pryluky

The missile hit Pryluky, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) east of Kyiv, around 6 a.m. local time while residents were still in their apartments, according to regional officials.

Early counts put the dead at four or five. By late morning, Interior Minister Ivan Vyhivskyi reported six dead in Pryluky, among them an 8-year-old boy, and 34 injured. Regional police said at 11:30 a.m. that the bodies of three children had been recovered and the toll had reached nine.

Viacheslav Chaus, head of the Chernihiv regional military administration, later said 13 had been killed, including four children. By about 2 p.m. Kyiv time (6 a.m. CT), the State Emergency Service put the toll at 14, with 50 wounded, seven of them children. Rescuers pulled 15 people alive from the wreckage.

Unexploded missile among Kyiv homes

In Kyiv, explosions began around 3:15 a.m. local time (7:15 p.m. CT Tuesday), with a second wave of missiles about two hours later. Many residents rode out the night in the city's deep metro stations.

Police bomb technicians and emergency service sappers later removed an unexploded Russian ballistic missile that had landed among apartment buildings in the Darnytskyi district. Kyiv police said it weighed about half a ton. In the same district, two people were killed in a fire caused by the attack, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

In Kremenchuk, in the central Poltava region, two people were killed and 34 injured, including two children, as of 12:55 p.m., said Vitalii Diakivnych, head of the regional military administration. Zelenskyy said four high-rise buildings were damaged in Kremenchuk and five apartment buildings in Dnipro. In Oleksandriia, in the Kirovohrad region, two people were killed, Zelenskyy said.

What was fired and what got through

Ukraine's air force said that, as of 10 a.m. Kyiv time, its units had shot down or jammed 39 of 48 cruise missiles and 117 of 130 drones, along with five ballistic missiles out of an unspecified number. The breakdown accounts for only part of the 70 missiles Zelenskyy described, as the air force did not give a total for ballistic launches. It recorded hits at 18 locations and falling debris at five more.

Zelenskyy said energy infrastructure was a key target, and the Energy Ministry began partial emergency power cuts in five regions.

A widening air war

Russia's Defense Ministry said it carried out a "massive strike" on military-industrial targets, including sites where the Ukrainian company Fire Point makes Flamingo cruise missiles and long-range drones, as well as port facilities in the Odesa region.

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces had struck two oil facilities and a training ground in Russia's Perm, Samara and Astrakhan regions, calling the strikes "just" responses. Russia's Transport Ministry said a Liberian-flagged tanker was attacked by naval drones near Sochi on Tuesday and that its crew of 23 Indian citizens had been rescued.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said 650 Ukrainian drones headed toward the Moscow region overnight into Tuesday, Oct. 6. Regional Gov. Andrei Vorobyov said two men were killed.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Kyiv of expanding attacks on Russia's "civilian economy" and said: "Ukraine must, and certainly will, pay the price for these actions."

Ukraine's General Staff marked the birthday with what it called an interim tally of Russian army losses, putting them at about 1,545,950 personnel since February 2022. It said the war was bringing Putin "closer to the dustbin of history." The estimate could not be independently verified.

In Kremenchuk, Diakivnych described what he said Russia wanted. "That is exactly what the enemy is counting on. For us to be afraid to fall asleep. To let our children out of our sight. To plan anything," he said. "So that everyone thinks: next time it could be my address."

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