The Situation Room - September 24th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday! Be on the lookout for a release coming very soon!

Today’s topics:

• Trump Makes Largest U-Turn Yet On Foreign Policy In His Second Term

• NATO Sends Warning Over Airspace Incursions By Russia

• Syria & Israel Close To Making ‘De-Escalation’ Agreement, Per U.S. Envoy

Trump Makes Largest U-Turn Yet On Foreign Policy In His Second Term

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump signaled a major shift in his approach to the war in Ukraine, saying after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York on Sept. 23, 2025, that Ukraine can win back all of its territory from Russia. The statement, delivered in remarks and on social media following their bilateral on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly, departs from previous comments suggesting Kyiv would need to accept territorial concessions to reach a settlement. Trump coupled the assessment with support for NATO allies enforcing their airspace against Russian aircraft and with continued U.S. weapons sales to NATO for onward provision to Ukraine.

What Trump Said

After the meeting with Zelensky, Trump wrote that Ukraine, with backing from European partners and NATO, is “in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.” He added that restoring the “original borders from where this war started” is “very much an option,” and described Russia’s military performance as faltering over the course of the three-and-a-half-year conflict. He stopped short of announcing new direct U.S. military commitments, stating instead that the United States would continue supplying weapons to NATO, which member states could then use to support Ukraine.

In separate comments the same day, Trump said NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that violate allied airspace, while noting that any U.S. response would depend on the circumstances. The remarks followed recent reports of Russian drones entering Polish territory and incidents in which NATO tracked or intercepted Russian aircraft near allied borders. Trump also reiterated that economic pressure remains part of his administration’s approach, pointing to possible measures aimed at reducing Russian revenue from energy sales.

Context and Prior Positions

Before the New York meeting, Trump had repeatedly argued that the war would likely end through negotiations involving some form of territorial compromise. He also emphasized that European nations should shoulder a larger share of security assistance, and he criticized the pace and structure of U.S. support to Kyiv. At various points earlier this year, his statements suggested skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to reclaim areas occupied by Russia since 2014 and 2022.

The new formulation marks a clear departure from that stance. It followed a period of heightened tension between Russia and NATO members, including reported airspace violations, and came amid continued Ukrainian strikes against targets that support Russia’s war effort. The shift also came the same day as leader-level meetings and speeches at the U.N., where Trump pressed European countries to reduce purchases of Russian oil and argued that European financial and military backing would be decisive if sustained.

How Kyiv and Others Responded

Zelensky described the meeting as positive and said Trump’s view of Ukraine’s battlefield prospects had moved closer to Kyiv’s own assessment. He indicated that Trump expressed readiness to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine after the war, though he did not outline specifics. Publicly, Zelensky has consistently set restoration of all Ukrainian territory—territory lost since 2014 as well as since 2022—as the goal of Ukraine’s campaign.

Allied officials and analysts noted that Trump’s statements did not include new U.S. commitments to provide weapons directly from U.S. stocks to Ukraine beyond existing arrangements. Instead, they pointed to a continuing framework in which NATO countries purchase from U.S. suppliers and transfer equipment under national decisions. European leaders, meeting Trump on the margins of the U.N. session, continued to press for unity on sanctions enforcement and air defense support, while reiterating their positions on energy imports from Russia.

Russia did not announce any change in its operations in response to the remarks. Moscow has continued missile and drone strikes across Ukraine and maintained forces in occupied areas. On the diplomatic front, there was no indication of movement toward talks. The Kremlin has maintained its position that the territories it claims are part of Russia, a position rejected by Ukraine and most U.N. member states.

Policy Elements That Changed—and Those That Did Not

Trump’s declaration that Ukraine can “win all of its territory back” is a substantive change from previous comments about negotiating land-for-peace arrangements. It aligns the White House message more closely with Kyiv’s stated aims and with the formal positions of many European governments that oppose rewarding aggression with territorial gains.

Other elements of policy remained constant. Trump did not announce a new U.S.-run security assistance program or an immediate increase in U.S. appropriations for Ukraine. He reiterated that European allies should expand their role, and he held to a preference for channeling support through NATO mechanisms and allied decisions. He also maintained that the United States would calibrate its responses to Russian actions that affect allies, including violations of NATO airspace, based on the specifics of each incident.

On sanctions and economic measures, Trump repeated that tightening revenue flows to Russia—particularly through energy—is a key lever. He encouraged European states to further reduce purchases of Russian oil and indicated that additional U.S. economic steps, including tariffs, remain under consideration if Russia does not move toward ending the war.

What to Watch Next

Implementation will be measured in several areas. First, whether European and NATO channels translate the shift in tone into additional air defense and munitions deliveries, training programs, or industrial contracts that increase Ukraine’s capacity. Second, whether incidents along NATO’s borders are met with a more uniform allied response, including enforcement against airspace violations and clearer procedures to reduce risks of escalation.

Third, whether the administration issues guidance that adjusts U.S. export licensing, financing, or production priorities to speed deliveries through allied procurement. That could take the form of streamlined approvals for certain categories of equipment, or expanded use of existing authorities that facilitate sales to NATO members. Fourth, whether Kyiv receives further clarity—public or private—about the “after the war” security guarantees Trump referenced.

Finally, observers will track any change in Russia’s military tempo or targeting. If Moscow tests allied airspace again, the responses by the states concerned—and their coordination with Washington—will indicate how Trump’s statements are being operationalized. If Russia escalates missile and drone attacks, European and U.S. decisions on additional air defenses will be a near-term indicator of how the updated framing affects materiel flows.

Taken together, the Sept. 23 statements place the administration on record in support of Ukraine’s objective to reclaim all occupied territory, mark a notable shift from earlier calls for concessions, and keep the emphasis on European funding and NATO channels for delivering military support. The approach pairs tougher language about Russia’s conduct and performance with a continued preference for allied mechanisms and economic pressure, leaving open questions about timelines, specific capabilities, and the scope of any future U.S. security guarantees once the war ends.

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