The Situation Room - September 30th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to The Situation Room! We cover the most high impact geopolitical developments every Wednesday!

Today’s topics:

• The U.S.-Led Coalition Leaves Erbil, Ending Twelve Years in Iraq

• Seoul Blames North Korea for DMZ Mines as Kim Yo Jong Threatens Retaliation

• Russia Opens the Winter Campaign Against Ukraine's Power Grid

The U.S.-Led Coalition Leaves Erbil, Ending Twelve Years in Iraq

_{By: Atlas}

The last U.S.-led coalition forces left Erbil Air Base on Wednesday, and the Pentagon said the departure ended Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq. U.S. Central Command said troops made an orderly exit, the final step in a timetable that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi confirmed at a July Pentagon meeting. Britain confirmed that its personnel had left with the coalition. Iraqi leaders marked Sovereignty Days. Kurdish officials warned that American air defenses were leaving as well, and Iran-aligned militias greeted the withdrawal as a victory over what they called an occupation.

An orderly exit from Erbil

Central Command said in Tampa that it had completed the orderly departure of U.S. forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base on Sept. 30, ending the Inherent Resolve mission in Iraq and opening a shift to a bilateral defense relationship.

Roughly 2,000 Americans were in Iraq as of February, officials said then — the total still to leave after troops pulled out of federal Iraq last October. That was a fraction of the roughly 170,000 U.S. troops present at the peak of the late-2000s surge under Operation Iraqi Freedom. Erbil Air Base, the main hub of Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, hosted most of the roughly 1,500 American and coalition personnel still on the campaign; Wednesday's removal finished the transition.

Britain's Ministry of Defence said coalition forces, including British personnel, had departed, and that Iraqi security forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga were well placed to take primary responsibility for security. It did not publish a head count. The BBC reported that the final British contingent was about 100, in an exit coordinated with the Americans who left on Wednesday.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the departure marked "the successful conclusion of the military mission that defeated ISIS in Iraq." What follows, he said, is "a transition from a wartime coalition mission to an Iraqi-led security effort supported by a more normal bilateral security relationship."

Baghdad marks Sovereignty Days

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said at a Baghdad ceremony: "The end of the international coalition's mission does not mean the end of our battle with terrorism, but rather Iraq's transition to a phase in which it assumes full responsibility for its security and stability." He said there would be "no weapons outside the umbrella of the law, and no force outside state institutions."

The Cabinet set a four-day holiday for state institutions, Wednesday through Oct. 3, for Sovereignty Days. Security forces held separate parades in Baghdad and in the Shiite holy city of Najaf.

The mission's airstrikes began in August 2014, after the Islamic State seized about a third of Iraq; Baghdad said in 2017 that it had retaken that ground. U.S. forces that invaded in 2003 left at the end of 2011. They returned in 2014 when the Islamic State threatened to overrun the country.

Militias claim a victory

Iran-aligned factions described the day as theirs. Abu Mujahid al-Assaf, a security official with Kataib Hezbollah, said driving out the occupation forces, "defeated, from the land of Iraq," was "the beginning of full sovereignty." He warned that any government that does not work for the people would be overthrown "by all means."

Ashab al-Kahf congratulated Iraqis on the departure of what it called the American occupier and said that from Wednesday night "any foreign presence, whether on land or in the air, will face a military response from us." It called plans to collect weapons an illusion.

The September date was supposed to couple the exit with disarmament. It did not. Al-Zaidi has said disbanding Iran-backed groups is now expected by June 30, 2027, after that deadline slipped. Powerful factions close to Iran had rejected the earlier date.

Kurdish warnings on air defense

"The primary responsibility for addressing Iraq's remaining security challenges, including ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias that undermine Iraqi sovereignty and regional stability, now rests with the Government of Iraq," Parnell said.

The Peshmerga Ministry of the Kurdistan Regional Government said the region had faced more than 1,000 drone and ballistic-missile attacks during this year's war between the United States and Iran. "The departure of the United States from the Kurdistan Region under these complex regional circumstances, without the provision of a defense system, is a matter of concern," the ministry said.

Retired Gen. Mohammed al-Jubouri, who led an Iraqi army brigade against the Islamic State, said a worst-case scenario would be the group obtaining armed drones "at a time when Iraq still lacks sufficient air defense capabilities to counter such threats effectively."

A bilateral tie and a headquarters in Jordan

Parnell said Washington expects Iraqi forces, including the Peshmerga, "to lead the continuing effort to secure Iraq and keep ISIS remnants suppressed," with "targeted training and intelligence support" from the Pentagon. Officials did not release a figure for any personnel who might remain under that bilateral work.

Adm. Brad Cooper, the Central Command commander, said the Islamic State "no longer poses a systemic threat to Iraq's national security," and that Iraqi forces "now possess the capacity, leadership, and operational independence to unilaterally manage threats to their homeland." He added that U.S. and coalition forces across the region "will remain ready to respond to any ISIS threats that arise."

Britain said Operation Shader would continue, alongside a defense partnership with Baghdad. British forces had trained more than 111,000 members of Iraq's security forces, including more than 21,000 Peshmerga, the ministry said.

U.S. Central Command said Combined Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve remains operational and is now headquartered in Jordan, as American forces continue the counter-Islamic State mission in Syria alongside coalition partners and the Syrian government.

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